President Obama recently directed his Secretary of Homeland Security, Jey Johnson, to research more humane options to the enforcement of immigration law with respect to some 12 million undocumented workers and family members living in the US.
Of course, it is mere coincidence that his latest courting of the Latino vote comes at a time when Obamacare is taking it on the chin for failing registration numbers and mid-term congressional elections are less than 8 months away.
The President knows the Republican-controlled House of Representatives has effectively shelved Immigration Reform until after the fall elections – a tactic designed to placate Republican hard liners and add to the distraction posed by the failure of Obamacare – so he needs to garner whatever additional support he can from a seemingly alienated Latino electorate.
So what’s in the tea leaves? Look to see in the coming days (or weeks) a plan which allows the President to exercise his prosecutorial discretion to afford some modest relief to undocumented persons who have US citizen or permanent spouses and/or children. This may involve an outright deferral of deportation (such as last year’s Deferred Action for Early Childhood Arrivals – DACA
) following some form of registration or simply the pronouncement of a policy directive which instructs Immigration and Custom Enforcement (ICE) to give the removal of such individuals low priority.
Should the President opt to defer the deportation of a large number of undocumented aliens in the US, you can expect the Republicans to complain loudly that the President is simply failing to enforce the law that he is constitutionally bound to uphold. In fact, the House already passed the ENFORCE Act which would allow Congress to sue the President to require him to enforce the laws passed by Congress. (The ENFORCE Act stands a snowball’s chance in hell of becoming law as the Democratically-controlled Senate will not pass the law and even if it did the President would simply veto it.)
Even without the ENFORCE Act, the Republicans will surely have plenty of political fodder to show the President is not serious about the enforcement of existing immigration law and therefore should not be counted on to enforce any future immigration reform laws which will necessarily include beefed up border security provisions.
Thus, the President’s actions could have dire consequences to future Immigration Reform requiring the support of Republican lawmakers.
Few would dispute that something has to give with Immigration Reform. Rest assured if after the fall elections the Republicans take control of the Senate, GOP policy makers will spin the election results as a public endorsement of a hard line enforcement-focused approach to Immigration Reform.
On the other hand, if the Democrats maintain control of the Senate and lose a few seats in the House, a more balanced and humane approach to Immigration Reform is likely to win full congressional approval next year.
Only time will tell. Stay tuned and stay informed!
