Immigration Reform Prospects for 2014

Immigration Reform is lurching ahead in 2014. Of course, the Senate approved Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act which sailed through the democratically controlled Senate in June 2013 was dead on arrival in the House thanks to pesky Republicans who are hell-bent on destroying any chance of retaking the Presidency in 2016. So back to the drawing board.

House and Senate Democrats have floated a proposal to fund in-state tuition for certain undocumented students (think Dreamers) who wish to attend state institutions of higher education without paying out-of-state fees normally charged to those from out-of-state and foreign students. The price tag of over 50 million may sting the Republican colleagues on the other side of the aisle. The amount is proposed to be offset by higher foreign student visa fees. Many student-aged undocumented who applied for deferred action for childhood arrivals (“DACA”) are allowed to apply to public institutions of higher education and believe they should be entitled to in-state tuition since many arrived as youngsters and graduated high school in their respective communities.

Meanwhile, House Republicans are busy drafting their own legislation to offer some form of legalization to the 12 million (or more) undocumented living in the US. The GOP is on the hot seat to get something done before the fall elections lest they completely alienate every Latino with a voter registration card. Some are claiming nothing will get done with an amnesty program in 2014 because the conservative faction of the GOP would rather eat glass than give legalization to lawbreakers. The moderates in the GOP see immigration reform as an essential to taking back the Senate majority – assuming a comfortable number of Hispanic voters swing their way.

So what’s in the tea leaves? I’m betting on the Republicans coming up with some form of legalization which will offer lawful status to the millions here without papers but will require applicants to jump through more hoops than a Barnum & Bailey circus tiger. Look for some onerous enforcement provisions to be thrown in to placate those seeking pounds of flesh. Think “E-Verify” being imposed on everyone so anyone seeking a job will have to get approval from a national database of social security numbers. Imagine a composite curtain of drones hovering over every yard of the Southern and Northern borders.

You’ll also see double, no triple the number of border patrol agents whose job it is to stop, arrest and detain those entering illegally. And you can forget about the present policy of “Catch and Release” for Mexican nationals. Those caught entering illegally will be placed in some form of quasi-removal proceedings and harsh consequences will await those who attempt subsequent illegal entries. Bank on seeing more advanced tracking of temporary visitors and students so they cannot easily overstay visas and disappear into the fabric of American society. The days of GPS tracking a la Blade Runner are not far off… As Edward Snowden has revealed, Big Brother is Watching You.

There will also be plenty for employers to crow about: more work visas for temporary workers; shorter waiting lines for professionals to immigrate to the US; and, investors and entrepreneurs will be given greater access to our immigration system particularly in endeavors within the science, technology, engineering and math fields. This is the land of opportunity after all.

This pretty much sums up the current state of affairs and offers my prediction on what we’ll see later this year. I’ll revisit this issue in months ahead to see how my ESP is working.

Ciao! From the City that Care Forgot…Sweet Home New Orleans.